Good evening, hope you’ve enjoyed your weekend - Mads from Priced In.
Probably still the most enjoyable way to keep up with prediction markets.
What success at prediction market trading looks like
I said it a few days ago, and I’ll say it again:
what a time to be alive… and trading prediction markets.
The world is chaos.
Sports. Politics. Crypto. Obscure reality TV.
All of it suddenly… tradable.
Your random, useless knowledge?
Might actually be an edge.
Let’s go.
We’re nearing the end of… a lot of things.
April’s wrapping up → a bunch of markets are about to resolve.
Sports seasons are closing → NBA, European football, the lot.
And maybe… just maybe…
the world is ending too. Who knows.
In other news:
US Senator Tillis tells NBC he will allow Warsh's confirmation to proceed
→ Some madness was taken out of the market after the Department of Justice on Friday dropped an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell→ Trump’s man’s likely to become Fed chairman - question is when?
From Twitter(X): Polymarket trader made $1,215 by betting only $23 on mainly weather predictions.
→ I will be playing around with some of these automated trading tools to see if the hype is real..
Brazil Issues Sweeping Ban Against Prediction Market Platforms 🇧🇷
→ tough day for Brazilian traders…→ ironic timing too - Flávio Bolsonaro (yes, that Bolsonaro) is currently leading (just) on Polymarket for this year’s election
→ if that holds…
don’t be shocked if this ban quietly disappears
assuming he’s as inspired by Trump’s US playbook as his father was
Deal of the week (next week) 🔍
The biggest sports event on the planet is coming this summer.
🥇🥇The World Cup. Real football. Played with your feet.🥇🥇
Europeans care deeply.
Americans suddenly care… because they’re hosting it for the first time since 1994.
All teams are locked in.
Everyone’s excited.
Well… almost everyone.
Check the live feed here
Because this week’s “deal” isn’t about who wins.
—> It’s about whether Iran even shows up.
If you’ve been offline (or in a 3-month bender 🥴) :
The US and Israel vs Iran situation has… escalated.
Let’s call relations:
“…not exactly friendly right now.”
Which raises a slightly absurd, very real question:
Will Iran even want to play on US soil?
And more importantly… will everything line up for them to actually do so?
That’s where the market comes in.
Currently (Sunday morning…) trading at ~76¢.
Which means the market thinks: “yeah, this probably works out.”
⚖️ The setup
All the good news?
…Already priced in.
You’re not betting on things improving.
You’re betting nothing breaks.
🎯 What actually matters this week
On April 30 📅 - there’s a FIFA Congress
This is the first real pressure test. Will Fifa take action?
If things stay calm in the world → fine, Iran will participate
If anything escalates → this gets complicated fast
👀 What could still go wrong
ah, nothing serious just…
Trump/Israeli resuming bombing and the region goes nuts
Iranian domestic politics - fair enough if they don’t want to play
visa / entry issues - already issues with non-war participating countries…
Low probability… but not zero.
🐳 One thing to watch
FIFA isn’t exactly famous for clean, perfectly timed information flows. 💸💸💸
Let’s leave it at that.
If size (aka insider nudge nudge) suddenly shows up in the market… pay attention.
🧠 The real trade
At 76¢:
“You’re paying for stability in an unstable situation.”
🥛 One-line take
You’re not betting on football. ⚽⚽
You’re betting geopolitics behaves itself.
I’m struggling to see Iran not participate. I’m struggling to see them participate. But hey… I’m also just Danish - we’ve already missed the WC qualification…
Ps. I’d play this on Polymarket due to liquidity and slightly better pricing…
Get your free Priced In beginners guide to Prediction Markets here
Current events deal
In a normal world, this deal — 4 days before resolution — would be insane.
Now?
With everything that’s happened… and the surprisingly unified “give Trump his damn ballroom” energy from MAGA Twitter…
it might actually make sense.
Only ~$25k liquidity though.
Not enough to make you rich. Not yet.
Meme of the day
Too early?