Good afternoon - Mads from Priced In.
This is the only newsletter you’d need to read if all you care about is fun, digested prediction market news, insights and bets.
It is a good day to be alive… if you have liquidity to trade in prediction markets of course
plenty is going on
the world never sleeps
prediction markets never sleeps… unless there’s a platform update going on and everything’s closed down for 1 hr (I’m looking at you, Polymarket!!)
Today we’re going to bring you:
Markets that resolved & News
A profile of the contender to our generation’s Buffet: Esoteric Catman
Some meme
🏈 The NFL Draft markets wrapped this weekend… 🏈
record volumes.
Turns out:
millionaire athletes + gambling instincts + insider vibes = a lot of money changing hands
Another classic:
💵 Will the Fed move rates?
They didn’t. Zzz
some people made money
some people learned a lesson
And then… this one:
Must have resolved in a YES.
Most guests were evacuated after an incident that tried to… accelerate the end of the Trump presidency.
Prediction markets: where office meetings and even dinner parties become tradable events.
In other news:
→ Bloomberg found that the majority of Polymarket traders lose money… while ~3% (plus bots) take most of the gains.
→ don’t worry - we’ll try to get you into that 3%… or at least stop you funding them
→ Despite all the talk of more oversight, the CFTC has cut its workforce by ~24% since Trump took office.
→ more efficiency… or less appetite to regulate? we’ll let you decide 🤔
→ The largest US gambling platform is pushing into prediction markets.
→ parent company Flutter has been watching Polymarket and Kalshi steal attention (and money)
→ now they’re making a serious move into the space
turns out “betting on the future” is good business
A portrait of an everyday prediction market hero
🐱 The Warren Buffett of Prediction Markets
(…if Buffett had anime hair and traded 14 hours a day)
Meet Esoteric Catboy (@catboyautist).
21 years old.
Internet-native.
Self-described “headpat connoisseur.”
And somehow…
one of the most profitable traders on Kalshi.
💸 The numbers (they’re stupid)
Started with: ~$1,000
Turned it into: $300K+ in ~4 months
Later:
$872K portfolio 💸💸💸💸
chasing $1M
At one point:
$45K in 9 days 🌶️🌶️🌶️
🧠 The strategy (surprisingly boring)
He didn’t YOLO random markets.
He focused on one thing:
“mention markets”
Stuff like:
Will a word be said in a speech?
Will someone appear somewhere?
Sounds dumb.
It’s not.
It’s just:
mispriced probabilities hiding in plain sight
🏋️ The real edge
Not genius. Not luck.
obsession.
He was trading:
12–14 hours a day
Grinding tiny edges.
Again. And again. And again.
🎯 Big moments
State of the Union: +$104K
→ second six-figure day
Super Bowl chaos:
→ spotted a ~$500K bet on Lady Gaga
→ took a $9K hit
→ started a whole “insider trading?” debate
Leaderboard:
→ briefly hit #1 on Kalshi mentions 🥇🥇🥇
→ immediately knocked off (of course)
🎭 The persona
Anime catboy.
Meme language.
Celebrating wins with:
“WE CAN’T STOP WINNING”
But underneath the chaos:
disciplined, consistent, brutally focused
🧠 What he actually believes
Not sexy. Not hype.
consistency > big swings
Avoid strategies that blow up your portfolio.
Win slowly.
Repeat.
🥛 The takeaway
This isn’t a story about a genius.
It’s a story about an everyday hero of the prediction market… someone who found an edge…
and refused to let go of it.
In a market full of noise:
he picked one game - and mastered it.
🐱 One-line summary
Anime avatar.
Relentless grind.
Almost $1M from a $1K start.
Follow Esoteric Catboy on Kalshi and X!!
You can STILL get your hands on the very free Priced In beginners guide to Prediction Markets here
Live deal of the day: Powell Mention Market
See the live feed here
STARTS SOON!!
Pure Esoteric Catboy territory.
Not about rates. About words.
Rates = hold.
Speech = the trade.
🧠 Expect
Yes: inflation, tariffs, uncertainty, dual mandate
No: cut, Trump, successor names, resign
🥛 Take
Boring script = edge.
This is where Catboy makes money.
The twist: Powell could turn this into the greatest trade ever…
just by saying one word: “Kalshi.”
Meme of the day
