Goodmorning - it’s Mads from Priced In.
I’m here to brighten up your weekend if all you do is trade prediction markets
Ok, the weekend past quickly.... For some, it means time with the family, Netflix binge watching, some sports. For others: we study prediction markets. And hang out with family.
I’ve been out most of the weekend and will add more meat to the bone in the coming week. This is what I’ve been seeing this weekend>
What is going on?
📊 Jobs report - a major upset to some investors
→ jobs came in at 115K vs ~60K expected
prediction market wasn’t just wrong - it was way off(!)
→ traders were anchored to weak data and missed the recovery shift
→ “100K+ jobs” at ~30% = ~3x trade
that’s where the money was 💰💰💰
→ strong jobs likely means fewer rate cuts
Fed markets repricing now
In the coming week’s newsletter we talk about how you can think about adjusting any base rate related trading bots to this new world
→ prediction markets are drifting into insider territory… again
this time, NPR reported that campaign staff, political operators, people close to events…
they’re trading on information before it’s public
→ the real issue: most people don’t see this as insider trading
they see it as betting
“I saw something early, I place a bet”
not “I traded on non-public information”
→ that mental model matters
because in regulated markets…
this is very likely illegal
→ this is where the category gets tested
prediction markets want to look like finance
but users still behave like it’s sports betting
→ and that mismatch is exactly what regulators will focus on
→ SEC just hit pause on prediction market ETFs ⏸️
not surprising - these don’t behave like normal ETFs
→ key difference
traditional ETFs track assets
these track binary outcomes
you’re not getting volatility… you’re likely getting all or nothing ⚠️
→ from a regulator’s perspective
that’s a very different risk profile for retail
easy to misunderstand
easy to lose everything
→ bigger picture
this is regulators trying to buy time
slow down the flow of institutional capital
until they understand what they’re dealing with
→ and honestly… probably a good thing
once this opens up,
💵 the capital coming in will be massive 💵
Robinhood on how they see prediction markets
Worth a watch
📈💰📊 What to watch next week
I was going to write about Iran again. But sometimes the best trade is:
something fast, liquid… and slightly ridiculous:
🎵 Eurovision Grand Final - Saturday night
Next weekend is the Eurovision final in Basel.
Yes, that Eurovision.
→ Europe’s annual experiment in music, politics, and questionable taste.
🇫🇮 Finland leads the market at ~34–37% on Polymarket (now a $135M+ market).
Which sounds strong… until you remember:
Eurovision is one of the least predictable events out there
Jury votes vs televotes diverge.
Semi-finals already reshuffled expectations.
Neighbours vote for neighbours. Always.
🧠 Why this market is interesting
This resolves next weekend.
No long timelines.
No waiting weeks for outcomes.
just a clean, short-dated market with a lot of volume and mutiple repricing events (aka semifinals)
Which means:
if you have real edge (voting patterns, jury behaviour, strong performances)…
this is where it actually matters
🎉 The reality
Let’s be honest.
This isn’t the Super Bowl of music.
it’s where Europe sends its most… enthusiastic performers
But:
People will watch.
People will vote.
People will drink alcohol.
People will bet.
and volume will spike hard into the final
NBA Playoffs - most series are already priced 🏀
→ four series, same pattern
2-0 or 3-0 leads everywhere
markets are basically pricing momentum > narrative
→ the only real trade this weekend: Detroit vs Cleveland (Game 3)
Detroit wins → 3-0 → series effectively over
that’s the highest leverage outcome on the board
→ OKC and Knicks are confirmation plays
markets already treating them as winners
nothing new unless they somehow lose
→ Spurs quietly the interesting one
road favourite = market thinks they’re just better
→ takeaway
most series are already decided
you’re not betting on winners… you’re betting on how fast they close
🇮🇷 Iran… again
So, this market is developing constantly, it’s very liquid and it has spill over effects on other markets. So let’s have an update…
→ the Iran deal isn’t “close” - it’s structurally stuck
🇮🇷 Iran wants peace first, nukes ☢️ later
🇺🇸 US wants nukes ☢️ first, then peace
those aren’t negotiating positions… they’re incompatible
Add 🇮🇱 Israel into that mix and:
near-term deal odds should be trending down
→ the real story isn’t geopolitics
The real story is the Fed knock-on effects
Oil at $100+ → inflation stays above target
and this time the Fed can’t just ignore it
because inflation was already too high before the shock
→ this creates the problem
inflation up, growth slowing
classic stagflation setup
no clean policy response
→ what the market is starting to price
not “will the Fed cut”
but “can the Fed cut at all?”
“zero cuts” moves higher for structural reasons, not sentiment
→ the chain is simple
no deal → oil stays high → inflation stays high → Fed stuck
that’s the trade most people are still underpricing
🧠 Market shift - Iran ↔ Fed
→ Iran deal:
Dec 31 ran to 70–74% on Axios “deal soon”
Trump rejects sequencing → “before China trip” 17% → low single digits
money was made fading short-term optimism
sell 15–20%, buy <5%
→ Fed rates:
“zero cuts 2026” at 56% → trending higher
jobs at 115K vs ~60K expected + oil shock
market now pricing no cuts
hike discussion enters
money was in “no cuts” early (50–60%)
now getting crowded
You can STILL get your hands on the very free Priced In beginners guide to Prediction Markets here
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