Good day and happy Friday - Mads from Priced In.
Probably the most enjoyable way to keep up with prediction markets.
What a week in prediction markets.
Chaos everywhere.
Nobody knows what’s going on.
And naturally… more people than ever are trying to make money from that fact.
💡 Chaos up → volume up. Logic.
The beauty of this space?
Everything is tradable.
Geopolitics
Economics.
Internet nonsense.
You can make (or lose) money on:
whether Trump does something dramatic in the Strait of Hormuz
or whatever bizarre event the internet cooks up next
It’s part market, part circus. Hard to look away.
Here’s what caught our eye this week:
Kalshi just overtook Polymarket in trading volume 🥇
→ partially caused by issues with Polymarkets regulatory status in the US, and underlying blockchain infrastructure… who would have thought 🤔A man in France tried to rig the weather… with a hair dryer 🇫🇷
→ yes, really. All to win a Polymarket bet. Respect the commitment.The suspicious pre-Maduro capture trades? 🔫
→ now tied to arrests, including a US soldier with insider information
→ turns out “edge” can sometimes be… illegal
The hot market 🔥
It’s no surprise the hottest markets right now are all tied to Iran. 🇮🇷
Too many moving parts.
Too many opinions. Too much Truth Social…?
Not nearly enough certainty.
Perfect conditions for a prediction market.
Let’s zoom in on the deal (from Polymarket) at the centre of it all:
Check the live feed here
A few things to notice here:
🌊 Extremely liquid market (~$46m in volume) means you can get in and out many times before it ends (…that’s what she said).
⚖️ Possible contract arbitrage: The contract explicitly excludes temporary ceasefires, and right now there’s no deadline, no urgency, and no real push toward anything “permanent” - meaning this can drift in limbo without ever triggering YES. On top of that, resolution requires either a signed deal or clear confirmation from both governments, and Iran isn’t even acknowledging a framework. So while the market sits around ~43%, the path to YES is narrow and getting narrower.
🤪 Possible Dumb Money award: The market at 43% feels generous given how fragile things look. But keep an eye out, things can change quickly.
Worth noting that this is a contract that changes probability and value constantly. Lots of volatility to trade!
Alternative sources to follow:
Al Monitor's Iran Pulse - one of those Middle East outlets with boots in Tehran that tends to break things before Reuters catches up
Trump’s Truth Social - more caps lock and fewer editors.
Tasnim News Agency - the Iranian hardliner feed. When they say “no deal”…Truth Social won’t save it.
Iranian Lego videos…
Get your free Priced In beginners guide to Prediction Markets here
Did you know? (Dumb money award)
The tech behind Polymarket is genuinely impressive.
They’ve basically financialized… everything.
That Bitcoin market - sometimes down to 5-minute windows?
For ~95% of users, it’s:
a slightly more sophisticated slot machine 🎰
For the other ~5%:
it’s a hedging tool
Same market.
Two completely different games.
Welcome to financial markets.
Meme of the day
🫦