🕵️‍♂️🛢️ The insider trading problem is getting real

It’s Wednesday. The sun is out. Europe has emotionally recovered from the weekend’s Eurovision. Arsenal, the football team, won the English Premier League last night. Big for them, big for prediction markets. The Middle East is still boiling. Massie lost. A lot of stuff affecting our beloved prediction markets are going on…

In today’s edition we’ll break down:

Plus a few braindead memes to help explain the current state of civilisation.

Trump’s apparent logic was simple:

replace Powell with Warsh

→ get lower rates

But markets are reminding everyone of something important:

Fed chairs don’t control physics.

That means:

And suddenly the “easy rate cuts under Warsh” thesis starts breaking down very fast.

The funny part?

Prediction markets are now beginning to price the exact opposite outcome:

Meaning the administration may have accidentally installed a new Fed chair just in time to economically recreate 1970s stagflation with AI girlfriends and ketamine-powered diplomacy.

The funniest story of the week was also probably the most important one.

A Las Vegas casino cancelled a prediction market conference… because prediction markets look too much like gambling.

Which is incredible logic coming from a building containing:

But underneath the irony is something serious:

the casino industry has finally realized prediction markets are not a quirky internet side project anymore.

…They’re competition. Real competition.

And now the backlash is becoming coordinated:

legal fights are stacking across multiple jurisdictions

This is rapidly turning into:

prediction markets vs the American gambling establishment

The interesting market implication:

“Supreme Court takes a prediction markets case this year” at ~64% honestly still feels low.

Because the category is now entering the exact phase every disruptive financial product eventually hits:

and incumbents suddenly discovering morality after decades of happily taking bets themselves.

The insider trading issue around prediction markets is starting to get genuinely dangerous once people at the very top of government become involved.

This week could end up being one of the most important regulatory moments the industry has faced so far.

while publicly insisting the Iran conflict would end “soon,” reports emerged that an account tied to Trump was simultaneously buying millions in oil, defense, and gold exposure.

That lands at an almost absurdly sensitive moment:

The problem is perception.

A lot of retail users still treat prediction markets like sports betting:

But once politicians, campaign staff, insiders, or people adjacent to military information start trading:

And markets will react hard if lawmakers start connecting those dots publicly during today’s hearing.

If strong anti-platform rhetoric emerges:

This week may determine whether prediction markets become a mainstream financial product…

or a regulatory war zone.

Last time, we looked at Trump’s travelling China trade show, whether Keir Starmer survives as British PM, and if ships will ever casually pass through Hormuz again. Let’s see what actually happened.

Honestly, in terms of concrete outcomes, the Trump-Xi summit was mostly a nothingburger.

Which is slightly surprising considering half of Silicon Valley seemed to board Air Force One for it.

Prediction markets were expecting:

Instead we mostly got:

But this increasingly is the model of the current US administration:

bring CEOs

make private deals

declare victory publicly

figure out later whether anything was actually signed

In brief:

🇬🇧 British politics remains one of the world’s most volatile asset classes.

Starmer’s “out by Dec 31” odds whipsawed from 74% → 85% after a 41-point collapse and rebound in a single week.

The funny part:
every ambitious politician in Britain still desperately wants the job…

despite the country increasingly resembling a political retirement home built on economic quicksand.

Usually, weekend time is sports time. But the next few days I’ll be spending looking at some exciting prediction markets surrounding sports where th

We will keep watching the Hormuz strait… 🌀 One of the most mathematically interesting markets on Polymarket right now:

“Will 60 ships transit Hormuz in a single day by May 31?”

No = 94%

And honestly?
That may still be too low.

The Strait just posted two consecutive zero-ship days.

To suddenly hit 60/day again within 11 days would require:

Basically:

One “whale” already rode No from 78¢ → 94¢.

The remaining risk is almost entirely:

🏀 This is basically:
America’s favourite basketball machine vs a 7’4 French alien engineered in a secret government lab.

Public money is all over OKC:

But the sharp money?
Quietly piling into San Antonio at +211.

The interesting signal:
the market gives OKC a clear edge tonight…

while simultaneously pricing the Spurs almost equally likely to win the entire championship.

That’s prediction markets saying:

And honestly:
any series involving Wembanyama increasingly feels less like basketball analysis and more like scientists monitoring an emerging anomaly.

Tonight two of the European giants in football face each other in the most expected and high-intense rivalry finals - the Europa League… no, of course it’s not a rival game, its not expected. It’s a result of too many teams playing European football. But still quite exciting.

⚽ Tonight’s final is fascinating because the main market is probably less interesting than the corner markets.

Villa sit around 74%.
Emery in European finals is basically a controlled military operation at this point.

But Freiburg at 27% is dangerous because:

The weirdly interesting edge tonight may actually be:

Villa generate relentless attacking pressure.
Freiburg’s compact low block naturally concedes corners instead of open shots.

So the market for:

might genuinely be sharper than trying to pick the winner itself.

Which is beautiful.

Thousands of people around the world emotionally hedging geopolitical trades…
by desperately counting Turkish corner kicks at 11:14pm.

You can STILL get your hands on the very free Priced In beginners guide to Prediction Markets here