🇨🇳💊 Trump’s ketamine diplomacy is moving markets

It’s been a slightly chaotic few days.

Personally, I got taken out by a stomach bug. I’ll be launching another newsletter specifically on this topic…. just kiddin’

Meanwhile, the markets have (also) been completely unhinged.

Trump’s China trip is already producing exactly the kind of bizarre, high-volatility theatre prediction markets were invented for. Which honestly shouldn’t surprise anyone. Put a sleep-deprived 79-year-old president, a few AI-billionaires running on ketamine and caffeine, and an overheating AI bubble economy onto Air Force One… and eventually the global economy starts sounding like a deleted Wolf of Wall Street scene.

And somehow that’s still not the weirdest part of the week.

We’ve also got:

Normal finance is starting to look incredibly boring by comparison.

→ Kalshi is becoming the “daily activity” platform with sports, parlays, fast dopamine, repeat trading

that’s driving volume dominance right now

→ Polymarket still owns the big global narrative trades with World Cup, geopolitics, elections, macro chaos

fewer markets

but culturally stronger ones

→ the bigger takeaway:

the category is splitting in two

1️⃣ Kalshi looks increasingly like a regulated trading casino.

2️⃣ Polymarket still feels like the Bloomberg terminal of internet chaos.

Just days after posting its first monthly volume decline in 8 months… it finally opens the app to US users.

→ this is less about “launching a feature”

and more about Polymarket admitting it can’t ignore the US anymore

While they were stuck in regulatory limbo, Kalshi grabbed the market.

→ the irony:

Polymarket built the culturally iconic product first

but Kalshi built the legally scalable one

Now Polymarket is trying to claw back distribution after losing months of momentum.

→ the real battle isn’t product quality anymore

it’s:

That race is suddenly getting very real.

An example of how prediction markets work. A new poll flipped the race.

Then came a hush money allegation from an ex-girlfriend.

Result:

Massie crashed from clear favourite to ~53%

Gallrein surged to ~49%

Basically a coin flip now.

This is prediction markets working exactly as intended:

new information arrives → probabilities reprice immediately.

There are soooo many interesting markets on at the moment, most related to politics. Here are some that I will be keeping a close eye on:

🇨🇳 Trump-Xi markets are basically live geopolitical parlays right now.

Boeing (80%) and Soybeans (73%) feel like the “safe, ceremonial handshake” trades:

predictable concessions both sides can announce as wins

→ the interesting contract is Rare Earth Relief at 36%

That’s the one with actual economic implications.

If China gives even modest export relief:

markets will treat it as a serious de-escalation signal

→ the real lottery ticket:

China joining Iran talks at 17%

Low odds.

But if it hits:

suddenly this summit stops being about trade

and becomes about global power alignment.

UK Politics is always a shitshow.

In the UK 🇬🇧 political system:

parties don’t just replace leaders overnight because X (or the entire population) is angry

→ the market is basically saying:

Starmer probably survives the immediate panic

but the long-term odds look ugly

27% by June

68% by end of 2026

That’s:

“not dead today”

but definitely not healthy

→ the interesting part is the market structure itself

The resignation odds are much higher than the no-confidence odds.

Meaning traders increasingly believe:

Starmer could slowly bleed out politically

without a dramatic coup moment

Very British way to die, honestly.

→ this market is structurally different from a normal “deal by X date” market

A peace deal can happen any day.

Miss today? Tomorrow still works.

But this market compounds mathematically against YES every single day traffic stays low.

→ that’s the edge

Once enough low-volume days stack up, certain future outcomes become physically impossible.

If ship traffic averages ~20/day, you eventually hit points where:

YES technically exists

but reality would require absurd catch-up numbers

Like 300 ships crossing in one day.

→ this is why NO has hidden strength here

The market doesn’t just need “good news”

it needs sustained, accelerating normalization fast enough to repair the rolling average.

That’s much harder than people intuitively think.

→ interesting part:

the market looks event-driven

but it’s actually a slow-moving math problem disguised as geopolitics.